Toyota Rav4 EV Forum

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 Post subject: Dec 2014 sales Rav4 EV - "37" Production Ended Aug 2014
PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 10:50 pm 
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Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 9:50 pm
Posts: 3861
Location: San Diego
2600 total to be sold in model years 2012 - 2014 to comply with California Air Resources Board - Zero Emissions Vehicle (CARB-ZEV) mandates:

On sale: September 24, 2012
Production ceased: August 28, 2014

Sep 2012 - 61 ........... 61
Oct 2012 - 47 ........... 108
Nov 2012 - 32 ........... 140
Dec 2012 - 52 ........... 192
Jan 2013 - 25 ............ 217
Feb 2013 - 52 ............ 269
Mar 2013 - 133 .......... 402
Apr 2013 - 70 ............ 472
May 2013 - 84 ............ 556
Jun 2013 - 44 ............ 600
July 2013 - 109 ......... 709
Aug 2013 - 231 ......... 940 (at this rate, 2600 will be complete 1st week April 2014)
Sep 2013 - 167 ........ 1107 (at this rate, 2600 will be complete 1st week July 2014)
Oct 2013 - 91 ......... 1198 (at this rate, 2600 will be sold out 2nd week of Jan 2015)
Nov 2013 - 62 ......... 1260 (at this rate, 2600 will be sold out 3rd week of Aug 2015)
Dec 2013 - 28 ......... 1288 (almost halfway to sold out !!!)
Jan 2014 - 63 ......... 1351 (even with a $14k lease incentive... ouch)
Feb 2014 - 101 ........ 1452
Mar 2014 - 73 ......... 1526
Apr 2014 - 69........... 1595 (from Aug 31, 2013 guess, sold out by first week of April 2014)
May 2014 - 149 ......... 1744
Jun 2014 - 91 .......... 1835
July 2014 - 68 ........... 1903 (from Sep 30, 2013 guess, sold out by 1st week of July 2014)
Aug 2014 - 228 ......... 2131
Sep 2014 - 125 ......... 2256
Oct 2014 - 97 ............ 2353
Nov 2014 - 73 ........... 2426
Dec 2014 - 37 ........... 2473 (30 to 65 cars remain unsold)
Jan 2015 - ............ (from Oct 31, 2013 guess, sold out by 2nd week of Jan 2015)

****************************************

Why 2600 cars?

http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/levprog/cl ... _12-09.pdf

2012 through 2014 Requirements. A manufacturer must meet the total ZEV obligation with ZEVs or ZEV credits generated by such vehicles, excluding NEVs and Type 0 ZEVs, equal to at least 0.79% of its annual sales

Zero Emission Vehicle Credits

Why are credit balances in units of grams/mile Non-Methane Organic Gases (g/mile NMOG)?

When credits are earned they are multiplied by the g/mile NMOG fleet average requirement for the appropriate model year. Please note that in the ZEV Regulation g/mi NMOG is used only as index (which decreases over time)—it is the “currency” that credits are stored in and does not represent actual values of g/mi NMOG. The intent of this multiplier was to reward early production of vehicles.


Fleet Average Non-Methane Organic Gas Exhaust Mass Emission
Requirements for Light-duty Vehicle Weight Classes
(50,000 Mile Durability Vehicle Basis)

Model Year - Fleet Average NMOG (grams per mile), All PCs; LDTs
---------- 0-3750 lbs LVW ---- LDTs 3751 lbs. LVW - 8500 lbs. GVW

2010+ ------- 0.035 --------------- 0.043


I will bet that the difference between 0.035 and 0.043 NMOG multiplier between a passenger car and light duty truck over 3750 pounds is yet another reason why Toyota used the Rav4 EV.

Toyota will build 900,000 cars for California sales in model years 2012-2014, and Toyota will build 2600 pure ZEVs that are over 3750 pounds or more, so:

(2600 total Rav4 EVs * 3 credits per 100 mile range car) * 0.043 = 335.4 "NMOG" CARB-ZEV credits for all three years. In the fiscal year ending Sept 30, 2013, Toyota carried a credit balance of 876.084 NMOG-CARB-ZEV.

I have no idea what balance they may have carried over since 1990. The 1107 Rav4 EVs * 3 = 3321 * 0.043 = 143.802 earned NMOG credits for California fiscal year.

(2600 total sold * 3 credit per car) / 900,000 Toyota cars sold in California in three years = 0.867%, and they need 0.79%. It looks like the perfect number, with a bit to spare. But that's not completely accurate, because some of these cars are being sold out of California and they either get zero or maybe one credit per car. It may get closer to the 0.79% threshold than Toyota would like. There is a $5000 penalty per credit not earned with a car, plus they would have to buy the credits on the open market.

*************************************

Toyota does get credit for the unsold Scion iQ EV cars:

7.4 ZEV Credits for Advanced Technology Demonstration Programs.

In model years 2009 through 2014, ZEVs and Enhanced AT PZEVs, excluding NEVs, placed in a California advanced technology demonstration program for a period of two or more years, may earn ZEV credits even if it is not “delivered for sale” or registered with the California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV). To earn such credits, the manufacturer must demonstrate to the reasonable satisfaction of the Executive Officer that the vehicles will be regularly used in applications appropriate to evaluate issues related to safety, infrastructure, fuel specifications or public education, and that for 50 percent or more of the first two years of placement the vehicle will be operated in California. Such a vehicle is eligible to receive the same allowances and credits that it would have earned if placed in service. To determine vehicle credit, the model- year designation for a demonstration vehicle shall be consistent with the model-year designation for conventional vehicles placed in the same timeframe. Manufacturers may earn credit for as many as 25 vehicles per model, per ZEV state, per year under this section C.7.4. A manufacturer’s vehicles in excess of the 25-vehicle cap will not be eligible for advanced technology demonstration program credits.

(c) Cap on Use of Credits (for ATDPs).

(1) ZEVs. Credits earned or allocated by ZEVs pursuant to this section C.7.5, not including all credits earned by the vehicle itself, may be used to satisfy up to one-tenth of a manufacturer’s ZEV obligation in any given model year, and may be used to satisfy up to one- tenth of a manufacturer’s ZEV obligation which must be met with ZEVs

***********

The upcoming Toyota hydrogen game, starting model year 2015 after the Rav4 EV ends in model year 2014:

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1089085_hydrogen-fuel-cell-cars-price-competitive-with-electrics-by-2030-toyota-says Soichiro Okudaira, chief officer of Toyota's R&D group, told Automotive News Europe that lower production costs will make fuel-cell vehicles competitive with electric cars by 2030

Toyota has $145B cash and cash equivalents on hand in late 2013.


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 Post subject: Re: Nov 2012 sales Rav4 EV - 32 - YTD - 140 of 2600 sold
PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 11:18 pm 
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Joined: Wed Nov 07, 2012 6:50 am
Posts: 1213
Location: San Jose, CA
This really equates to abysmal sales results for approximately the first 100 days on the market for such an outstanding CUV as the RAV4 EV. That's roughly an average of selling <2 cars per day from something like 60 "authorized" Toyota dealerships in CA. I know the car costs 50 large, and the economy is still fairly lousy, with CA (second only to NV) having the highest unemployment, but 'cmom, this car really ROCKS!!! And it's a "family" car, whereas most other EVs are not. It also has substantial range capability (almost as much as a base model Tesla Model S sedan (in severely limited availability). In a much better economy, the RAV4 EV should be selling like hotcakes! Nevertheless, I'm sure glad I got one of the first few 100 sold! :mrgreen:

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Owner of 2012 Classic Silver RAV4 EV, 2012 Silver VOLT & 2008 Red C6 Z06
EMW JuiceBox Basic (fully optioned & customized) EVSE L2 charging station
https://enlighten.enphaseenergy.com/public/systems/TRVh161550


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 Post subject: Re: Nov 2012 sales Rav4 EV - 32 - YTD - 140 of 2600 sold
PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 3:29 am 
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Joined: Sat Nov 10, 2012 5:25 pm
Posts: 72
I think the first 61 sold in September is counting the 55 dealers that had to buy one. I would love to know if this is true. I know of only one dealer in the LA area that had one to sell on the 24th. Most sells started on the 29th. I know this cause I was on A LOT of waiting list and spoke with each dealer almost daily. I'm just being weird but I would love to know where the first personal one was sold and when. I think is kind of cool having a car with a lot of zeros in the Vin number.

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2012 Classic Silver Rav4 EV (Vin # 1062)
Purchased in september 2012
Los Angeles


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 Post subject: Re: Nov 2012 sales Rav4 EV - 32 - YTD - 140 of 2600 sold
PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 3:58 am 
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Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 9:50 pm
Posts: 3861
Location: San Diego
Damchi wrote:
I think is kind of cool having a car with a lot of zeros in the Vin number.


I think they started at 1000, because my serial number is 1134. I'm reasonably confident that means after 30 odd prototypes, I'm about 134, not 1134.


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 Post subject: Re: Nov 2012 sales Rav4 EV - 32 - YTD - 140 of 2600 sold
PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 4:00 am 
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Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 9:50 pm
Posts: 3861
Location: San Diego
Dsinned wrote:
(almost as much as a base model $75k Tesla Model S sedan, which has severely limited availability).


You got those numbers reversed. The price is $57k.


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 Post subject: Re: Nov 2012 sales Rav4 EV - 32 - YTD - 140 of 2600 sold
PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 4:08 am 
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Joined: Sat Nov 10, 2012 5:25 pm
Posts: 72
TonyWilliams wrote:
Dsinned wrote:
(almost as much as a base model $75k Tesla Model S sedan, which has severely limited availability).


You got those numbers reversed. The price is $57k.



Not anymore!

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2012 Classic Silver Rav4 EV (Vin # 1062)
Purchased in september 2012
Los Angeles


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 Post subject: Re: Nov 2012 sales Rav4 EV - 32 - YTD - 140 of 2600 sold
PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 4:11 am 
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Joined: Sat Nov 10, 2012 5:25 pm
Posts: 72
TonyWilliams wrote:
Damchi wrote:
I think is kind of cool having a car with a lot of zeros in the Vin number.


I think they started at 1000, because my serial number is 1134. I'm reasonably confident that means after 30 odd prototypes, I'm about 134, not 1134.


I agree. I'm 1062 so there are 7 cars made before mine after the 55 that went to dealers, but I don't know if they had been sold yet. I also don't know how many Toyota kept. The one at the Ka auto show was 1137

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2012 Classic Silver Rav4 EV (Vin # 1062)
Purchased in september 2012
Los Angeles


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 Post subject: Re: Nov 2012 sales Rav4 EV - 32 - YTD - 140 of 2600 sold
PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 5:21 am 
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Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 9:50 pm
Posts: 3861
Location: San Diego
Damchi wrote:
TonyWilliams wrote:
Dsinned wrote:
(almost as much as a base model $75k Tesla Model S sedan, which has severely limited availability).


You got those numbers reversed. The price is $57k.



Not anymore!


http://www.teslamotors.com/models/options


STARTING
PRICE
After $7,500 Federal
Tax Credit


$49,900 $59,900 $69,900


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 Post subject: Re: Nov 2012 sales Rav4 EV - 32 - YTD - 140 of 2600 sold
PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 5:28 am 
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Joined: Sat Nov 10, 2012 5:25 pm
Posts: 72
$57 for now. The last I heard the price change was going to take effect on Dec 5th, but now it looks like its not until Janruary 1 2013. And yes for new reservations only. And don't for get about the so called options that run about $5,000 and I hope you like white or black cause if you want another color you are looking at another $1,000

http://www.egmcartech.com/2012/12/03/tesla-model-s-price-jumps-2500/

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2012 Classic Silver Rav4 EV (Vin # 1062)
Purchased in september 2012
Los Angeles


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 Post subject: Re: Nov 2012 sales Rav4 EV - 32 - YTD - 140 of 2600 sold
PostPosted: Tue Dec 04, 2012 7:11 am 
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Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 9:50 pm
Posts: 3861
Location: San Diego
Damchi wrote:
$57 for now. The last I heard the price change was going to take effect on Dec 5th, but now it looks like its not until Janruary 1 2013. And yes for new reservations only. And don't for get about the so called options that run about $5,000 and I hope you like white or black cause if you want another color you are looking at another $1,000

http://www.egmcartech.com/2012/12/03/tesla-model-s-price-jumps-2500/


All true. I intend to get my order in shortly (before Jan 1, 2013 price increase).


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