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 Post subject: Re: Feb 2014 sales Rav4 EV - "101" - 1453 of 2600 sold
PostPosted: Wed Apr 02, 2014 5:07 am 
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35 x $20 is $700 and the residual went down about the same. I call it a wash if you keep the car and a minor adjustment if turning it in.
I would be looking for an additional $3,500+ lease credit late October if sales continue to flounder.


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 Post subject: Re: Feb 2014 sales Rav4 EV - "101" - 1453 of 2600 sold
PostPosted: Wed Apr 02, 2014 6:57 am 
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Location: Los Altos, CA
eugenepan wrote:
if the $2500 california credit is gone, that is a big price increase to most people. it looks like the incentive is the same, so they will probably sell less than 40 next month.
The CA rebate is not gone. You just have to wait a couple extra months to get the check.

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 Post subject: Re: Feb 2014 sales Rav4 EV - "101" - 1453 of 2600 sold
PostPosted: Wed Apr 02, 2014 8:25 pm 
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miimura wrote:
eugenepan wrote:
if the $2500 california credit is gone, that is a big price increase to most people. it looks like the incentive is the same, so they will probably sell less than 40 next month.
The CA rebate is not gone. You just have to wait a couple extra months to get the check.


There is only $5 million guaranteed, and the website says that they are allocating about 2500 cars per month. That means that there might be 24 days or so before the money runs out, and it has already been 5 days since they suspended the payments. So, if you buy your car at the end of April, you aren't guaranteed any money, and you won't know until June if you will get it. I think people might wait until June to make sure. $2500 is big money plus the $700 someone mentioned with the unlimited miles, it keeps getting more expensive to lease one of these cars. i am still unclear why toyota wants to lease these cars instead of providing similar incentives to buy the cars. Let the car buyers decide and just provide a similar incentive, like $9000 cash back compared to the $16,500 lease money.


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 Post subject: Re: Mar 2014 sales Rav4 EV - "73" - 1526 of 2600 sold
PostPosted: Wed Apr 02, 2014 9:15 pm 
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Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 9:50 pm
Posts: 3967
Location: San Diego
2600 total to be sold in model years 2012 - 2014 to comply with California Air Resources Board - Zero Emissions Vehicle (CARB-ZEV) mandates:

On sale: September 24, 2012

Sep 2012 - 61 ........... 61
Oct 2012 - 47 ........... 108
Nov 2012 - 32 ........... 140
Dec 2012 - 52 ........... 192
Jan 2013 - 25 ............ 217
Feb 2013 - 52 ............ 269
Mar 2013 - 133 .......... 402
Apr 2013 - 70 ............ 472
May 2013 - 84 ............ 556
Jun 2013 - 44 ............ 600
July 2013 - 109 ......... 709
Aug 2013 - 231 ......... 940 (at this rate, 2600 will be complete 1st week April 2014)
Sep 2013 - 167 ........ 1107 (at this rate, 2600 will be complete 1st week July 2014)
Oct 2013 - 91 ......... 1198 (at this rate, 2600 will be sold out 2nd week of Jan 2015)
Nov 2013 - 62 ......... 1260 (at this rate, 2600 will be sold out 3rd week of Aug 2015)
Dec 2013 - 28 ......... 1288 (almost halfway to sold out !!!)
Jan 2014 - 63 ......... 1351 (even with a $14k lease incentive... ouch)
Feb 2014 - 101 ........ 1452
Mar 2014 - 73 ......... 1526
Apr 2014 - ............ (from Aug 31, 2013 guess, sold out by first week of April 2014)
May 2014 - ............
Jun 2014 - ............
July 2014 - ........... (from Sep 30, 2013 guess, sold out by 1st week of July 2014)
Aug 2014 - ............
Sep 2014 - ............
Oct 2014 - ............
Nov 2014 - ............
Dec 2014 - ............
Jan 2015 - ............ (from Oct 31, 2013 guess, sold out by 2nd week of Jan 2015)

****************************************

Why 2600 cars?

http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/levprog/cl ... _12-09.pdf

2012 through 2014 Requirements. A manufacturer must meet the total ZEV obligation with ZEVs or ZEV credits generated by such vehicles, excluding NEVs and Type 0 ZEVs, equal to at least 0.79% of its annual sales

Zero Emission Vehicle Credits

Why are credit balances in units of grams/mile Non-Methane Organic Gases (g/mile NMOG)?

When credits are earned they are multiplied by the g/mile NMOG fleet average requirement for the appropriate model year. Please note that in the ZEV Regulation g/mi NMOG is used only as index (which decreases over time)—it is the “currency” that credits are stored in and does not represent actual values of g/mi NMOG. The intent of this multiplier was to reward early production of vehicles.


Fleet Average Non-Methane Organic Gas Exhaust Mass Emission
Requirements for Light-duty Vehicle Weight Classes
(50,000 Mile Durability Vehicle Basis)

Model Year - Fleet Average NMOG (grams per mile), All PCs; LDTs
---------- 0-3750 lbs LVW ---- LDTs 3751 lbs. LVW - 8500 lbs. GVW

2010+ ------- 0.035 --------------- 0.043


I will bet that the difference between 0.035 and 0.043 NMOG multiplier between a passenger car and light duty truck over 3750 pounds is yet another reason why Toyota used the Rav4 EV.

Toyota will build 900,000 cars for California sales in model years 2012-2014, and Toyota will build 2600 pure ZEVs that are over 3750 pounds or more, so:

(2600 total Rav4 EVs * 3 credits per 100 mile range car) * 0.043 = 335.4 "NMOG" CARB-ZEV credits for all three years. In the fiscal year ending Sept 30, 2013, Toyota carried a credit balance of 876.084 NMOG-CARB-ZEV.

I have no idea what balance they may have carried over since 1990. The 1107 Rav4 EVs * 3 = 3321 * 0.043 = 143.802 earned NMOG credits for California fiscal year.

(2600 total sold * 3 credit per car) / 900,000 Toyota cars sold in California in three years = 0.867%, and they need 0.79%. It looks like the perfect number, with a bit to spare. But that's not completely accurate, because some of these cars are being sold out of California and they either get zero or maybe one credit per car. It may get closer to the 0.79% threshold than Toyota would like. There is a $5000 penalty per credit not earned with a car, plus they would have to buy the credits on the open market.

*************************************

Toyota does get credit for the unsold Scion iQ EV cars:

7.4 ZEV Credits for Advanced Technology Demonstration Programs.

In model years 2009 through 2014, ZEVs and Enhanced AT PZEVs, excluding NEVs, placed in a California advanced technology demonstration program for a period of two or more years, may earn ZEV credits even if it is not “delivered for sale” or registered with the California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV). To earn such credits, the manufacturer must demonstrate to the reasonable satisfaction of the Executive Officer that the vehicles will be regularly used in applications appropriate to evaluate issues related to safety, infrastructure, fuel specifications or public education, and that for 50 percent or more of the first two years of placement the vehicle will be operated in California. Such a vehicle is eligible to receive the same allowances and credits that it would have earned if placed in service. To determine vehicle credit, the model- year designation for a demonstration vehicle shall be consistent with the model-year designation for conventional vehicles placed in the same timeframe. Manufacturers may earn credit for as many as 25 vehicles per model, per ZEV state, per year under this section C.7.4. A manufacturer’s vehicles in excess of the 25-vehicle cap will not be eligible for advanced technology demonstration program credits.

(c) Cap on Use of Credits (for ATDPs).

(1) ZEVs. Credits earned or allocated by ZEVs pursuant to this section C.7.5, not including all credits earned by the vehicle itself, may be used to satisfy up to one-tenth of a manufacturer’s ZEV obligation in any given model year, and may be used to satisfy up to one- tenth of a manufacturer’s ZEV obligation which must be met with ZEVs

***********

The upcoming Toyota hydrogen game, starting model year 2015 after the Rav4 EV ends in model year 2014:

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1089085_hydrogen-fuel-cell-cars-price-competitive-with-electrics-by-2030-toyota-says Soichiro Okudaira, chief officer of Toyota's R&D group, told Automotive News Europe that lower production costs will make fuel-cell vehicles competitive with electric cars by 2030

Toyota has $145B cash and cash equivalents on hand in late 2013.


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 Post subject: Re: Feb 2014 sales Rav4 EV - "101" - 1453 of 2600 sold
PostPosted: Thu Apr 03, 2014 12:04 am 
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Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2013 11:13 pm
Posts: 1692
Location: Los Altos, CA
eugenepan wrote:
miimura wrote:
eugenepan wrote:
if the $2500 california credit is gone, that is a big price increase to most people. it looks like the incentive is the same, so they will probably sell less than 40 next month.
The CA rebate is not gone. You just have to wait a couple extra months to get the check.

There is only $5 million guaranteed, and the website says that they are allocating about 2500 cars per month. That means that there might be 24 days or so before the money runs out, and it has already been 5 days since they suspended the payments. So, if you buy your car at the end of April, you aren't guaranteed any money, and you won't know until June if you will get it. I think people might wait until June to make sure. $2500 is big money plus the $700 someone mentioned with the unlimited miles, it keeps getting more expensive to lease one of these cars. i am still unclear why toyota wants to lease these cars instead of providing similar incentives to buy the cars. Let the car buyers decide and just provide a similar incentive, like $9000 cash back compared to the $16,500 lease money.
AB 8 was signed by the Governor on the last National Plug-In Day. This bill provides $2B (Billion) dollars to continue CVRP, HVIP and other programs through 2023. It also includes $20M for construction of hydrogen refueling infrastructure :( So, people are pretty much guaranteed to eventually get their $2,500 rebate for RAV4 EV purchases and leases through at least June 30, 2014. CARB is discussing changing various aspects of their programs going forward, but this fiscal year is set in stone. The current shortfall is merely due to poor forecasting.

AB 8 Coverage at GreenCarCongress

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 Post subject: Re: Mar 2014 sales Rav4 EV - "73" - 1526 of 2600 sold
PostPosted: Thu Apr 03, 2014 6:24 pm 
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Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2013 7:29 pm
Posts: 22
Looks like you know more information than me. I am just hoping that the price will continue to drop and they offer a purchase option which would make the price more enticing instead of a measly $2500 cash. I am building in Los Altos, and my house won't be done until late summer, and my rental house isn't really suited for charging a car, so I need to wait. Maybe, we will be neighbors.


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 Post subject: Re: Mar 2014 sales Rav4 EV - "73" - 1526 of 2600 sold
PostPosted: Thu Apr 03, 2014 8:59 pm 
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Joined: Fri Mar 28, 2014 10:24 am
Posts: 4
I wonder if those monthly numbers are lagged a bit. I am currently awaiting delivery of a RAV4EV VIN ending in 2654, assuming VIN order has anything to do with this that would imply the 1654th out of 2600; lease signed at end-March.


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 Post subject: Re: Mar 2014 sales Rav4 EV - "73" - 1526 of 2600 sold
PostPosted: Sat Apr 05, 2014 12:23 am 
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Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 9:50 pm
Posts: 3967
Location: San Diego
DerekRiehl wrote:
I wonder if those monthly numbers are lagged a bit. I am currently awaiting delivery of a RAV4EV VIN ending in 2654, assuming VIN order has anything to do with this that would imply the 1654th out of 2600; lease signed at end-March.


That's exactly right.


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 Post subject: Re: Apr 2014 sales Rav4 EV - "69" - 1595 of 2600 sold
PostPosted: Thu May 01, 2014 8:34 pm 
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Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 9:50 pm
Posts: 3967
Location: San Diego
See above title.


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 Post subject: Re: Apr 2014 sales Rav4 EV - "69" - 1595 of 2600 sold
PostPosted: Thu May 01, 2014 8:39 pm 
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Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2013 5:53 am
Posts: 258
Location: Davis, CA
Wow. Still over a thousand to go.....

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