Making Sure My Math Is Right (Prepurchase Decision)

Based on the amazing tips and feedback from this site, we are looking at a RAV4 EV from LA to be shipped to WA - but I want to post my financial analysis to make sure my numbers are right and we've assessed the risks...

Selling price is 48,200 minus 10,000 minus 7,500 - so total net cost is 32,300 with no sales tax, then minus the private sale value of our other car, maybe another 7,500 so net is about 24,800 after everything is priced in.

Purchase with 60 month loan and zero interest, no downpayment, monthly payment is: 638/month (does not include the tax credit).

7500 tax credit is 625/mo in value - so first year cost is about $12/month (638-625) after return of the tax credit next March

Sell the existing 2005 Rav4 L for about 7500 or so after 6-8 months of making sure we can function with the EV without anxiety, so second year cost is the same net $12/month after the sale

Third year, or late in the second year, we are looking at the Tesla X (the 1yr delay is why we are interested in trying out the RAV4), so we need to blindly estimate both the value and demand for the 2012 RAV4 EV - but if the net cost after tax rebate and the sale of the old car reduce our cost to 24,800, I would hope we could sell it for at least that as the loan balance would be around 15k and we'd want the value of the sold RAV4 back if possible to use as a downpayment on the X.

Trying to figure out the risk of the worst case scenario - we buy the RAV4 EV, and after a few months, discover that it's just the wrong type of car for us - the range is not enough and we're either constantly anxious or constantly driving the old car - so we would need to sell the car used after a few months of ownership - could we get 28-30K for it up in WA where it's not sold by dealers and get most of our money back? That is the big question.

The other issue is the startup costs, which is where we're hitting an analysis snag:

$800 to ship the car
$200 to install the 240V/40A plug in the garage
$750 (net after tax credit) for the Aerovironment portable charging station so we can take it up to our relatives in Bellevue and charge while visiting (or in a pinch, a RV park)

The $1,750 total is almost our fuel bill for the existing RAV4 for almost 2 years - thus, are we better off just waiting for the X if that's what we really want?

The Model X is very nice, but it is at least one (if not two) years away. I think your concerns are valid, but I don't think you will be disappointed with the RAV4EV in any way. The Model X will have roughly 50% more range, but you'll have to pay at least twice the price for it. I think your RAV4EV will retain its value in WA because of it's rarity. Jump in and get some experience with this wonderful EV. I think the risk is relatively low, but I'm biased because I've done the exact same thing getting one in Texas.

Good luck.

bocastephen said:

Trying to figure out the risk of the worst case scenario - we buy the RAV4 EV, and after a few months, discover that it's just the wrong type of car for us - the range is not enough and we're either constantly anxious or constantly driving the old car - so we would need to sell the car used after a few months of ownership - could we get 28-30K for it up in WA where it's not sold by dealers and get most of our money back? That is the big question.

Click to expand...

I'd take it off your hands if this came to be the case. No, seriously. I'm moving back to Seattle in June and have been planning on shipping a RAV4 EV from Cali up there in early 2014, since this year I'll be under $7,500 in Federal tax liability (big move and new kid/child tax credit along with attendant medical expenses). I'd move up my plans without thinking twice if I could buy one in Washington already post-tax credit, if it were.

bocastephen said:

$200 to install the 240V/40A plug in the garage
$750 (net after tax credit) for the Aerovironment portable charging station so we can take it up to our relatives in Bellevue and charge while visiting (or in a pinch, a RV park)

Click to expand...

Do you really need to install that plug? If your daily driving needs are modest, you might be able to get away with 120 volt charging.

If you're going to install that plug, how about getting the stock L1 EVSE upgraded via http://evseupgrade.com/? The guy that behind it (Ingineer aka Phil) is a respected member of MyNissanLeaf.com and has been featured in the New York Times at least once. It won't be nearly as fast as http://www.leviton.com/OA_HTML/SectionDisplay.jsp?section=37818&minisite=10251 as its max output is only 12 amps at 240 volts (vs. 40 amps of http://toyota.leviton.com/faqs/rav4ev).

Per http://green.autoblog.com/2013/03/11/tesla-model-x-delayed-one-year/ "Production for Model X has been pushed back until late 2014."

Re: your concern that "the range is not enough". How many miles/day are you planning on driving? How much at freeway speeds? If the distances are long, is there any ability to charge at the destinations or along the way?

cwerdna said:

If you're going to install that plug, how about getting the stock L1 EVSE upgraded via http://evseupgrade.com/? The guy that behind it (Ingineer aka Phil) is a respected member of MyNissanLeaf.com and has been featured in the New York Times at least once. It won't be nearly as fast as http://www.leviton.com/OA_HTML/SectionDisplay.jsp?section=37818&minisite=10251 as its max output is only 12 amps at 240 volts

Click to expand...

My already modified unit is still for sale.

We want that specific plug as it would eliminate most of the range anxiety up in Seattle/Bellevue and can plug in with relatives for a few hours while visiting - that gives us about 100 miles of clear sailing on the way up, and maybe another 90 miles on the way back - so plenty of padding and no worry about turning on the heat, air conditioning, radio, etc.

95% of our driving is work commute (25m r/t), supermarket (up to 40m r/t), Lowes/Home Depot, fitness center, dinner out. The other 5% are those drives up to Seattle that might take us on a route from Tacoma to Seattle, to Wallingford, to Green Lake, then to Bellevue (405/90)....and with the portable charger, we can plug in while in Bellevue at home, no searching for charging stations and having family drive out to pick us up at the station, then driving us back to get the car. On a longer trip where a lengthly stop is not a problem, we can plug in at a RV park using that charger.

Most of our driving is on the freeway, and people drive so slow around that region it would be hard to get much above 60 anyway, so I am guessing with either AC on, or periodic heat, we should be averaging about 110-115 or so (vs 130 with AC/heat off). We want the driving experience to be identical to a regular car, so we're not going to drive around sweating or freezing just because it's a EV. We will use the remote climate control feature in the morning during winter to pre-heat the car before heading out while it's still plugged in.

The bigger problem are the day/weekend trips - Vancouver, Victoria, Mt Rainier, Leavenworth, Friday Harbor, Oregon Coast - these are the trips we will likely need to rent a car for the day/weekend, but we're talking about 10 times a year or so.

I'm really aggravated that Toyota did not include the fast charge system - WA installed fast chargers along I5 from the Canadian border down to Oregon, making the trip totally seamless. A 45 minute charge during a bathroom break and meal compares favorably with a 20 minute stop at a gas station for gas, snacks, drinks, bathroom - but 5 hours to fully charge? That just won't work.

I wonder if someone will create a mod kit that adds a fast charge port connected directly to the battery, perhaps hidden in the cargo area.

I do have a question about the extended range feature - I am confused because the sales rep explained that we always charge the battery full, but the extended range is an emergency feature to be used very rarely, and involves selecting an option on the control screen to discharge the extra power (which is harmful to the battery) - while other posts on this board suggest the car only charges to 80% of max, and we need to modify something to get the full charge, which results in the longer range. Could anyone help explain which is correct?

^^^
As someone who lived in Seattle then the Eastside for a total of 9 years, I can relate and to the slow drivers there (60 mph speed limits in near major cities/towns w/people frequently going below the speed limit in the fast lane in dry daytime conditions for no reason).

For your 95% trips, that should be no problem. Even your 5% trip should be ok in extended charge mode and no charging in Bellevue. Google Maps plots that at ~90 to 95 miles total. It might get dicier w/no charging in winter (partly due to heater use and increased rolling friction).

Yes, it is very unfortunate there's no CHAdeMO port on the Rav4 EV. If the leasing deals were a bit better and that port were there, that would make the vehicle more tempting. I think some sort of 3rd party retrofit to add it will be quite expensive, if anyone ever does one.

Re: the Aerovironment portable EVSE, yeah its charging rate will be faster at 240 volts than a modified L1 EVSE (via evseupgrade). That'll help at RV parks and if those relatives have a free 240 volt outlet.

There are also some potential issues if you sell the Rav4 EV. I don't know the details OTOH about the $7500 tax credit and what happens if you sell. Someone else can chime in. Also, I believe the WA EV sales tax exemption only applies to new EVs. Whoever in WA buys your EV off you I believe will have to pay use/sales tax when the register, making it a bit less attractive. And, of course, cars depreciate.

cwerdna said:

...
There are also some potential issues if you sell the Rav4 EV. I don't know the details OTOH about the $7500 tax credit and what happens if you sell. Someone else can chime in. Also, I believe the WA EV sales tax exemption only applies to new EVs. Whoever in WA buys your EV off you I believe will have to pay use/sales tax when the register, making it a bit less attractive. And, of course, cars depreciate.

Click to expand...

My understanding is they will not take the credit back if you sell, but the next buyer cannot claim it - in fact Toyota, Nissan, etc take this credit on their own for every car they lease (although apparently Nissan passes the savings through on their lease quote while Toyota does not). I need to check the WA rules again, but I don't believe sales tax is due on a used EV either.

The federal tax credit can only be kept if you didn't buy the car with the intent of resale. Plenty of slimy car dealers have sold "used" cars with 2 miles on them while they pocket $7500:

http://www.irs.gov/uac/Form-8936,-Qualified-Plug-in-Electric-Drive-Motor-Vehicle-Credit