Will Toyota Cancel the Rav4 EV before producing 2600 ?

[TonyWilliams]

At least I'll have a collectors' Rav4ev for few years. Maybe I'll get a good offer on eBay!

They are currently only going to make 2600; that's the default. The suggestion I offered is "what if they only make 700 total instead?"

Either way, you have a rare car.

 

[Ampster]

I thought I read that they were going to cancel production. Is that still an unconfirmed rumor or did I misunderstand?

 

[TonyWilliams]

I thought I read that they were going to cancel production. Is that still an unconfirmed rumor or did I misunderstand?

They might... But nothing that I've seen has been publicaly released.

 

[TonyWilliams]

I think the Rav4 EV should only get 3 credits earned per vehicle, or they may fudge their numbers to call the Rav4 a 200 mile car and get 4 credits. One or the other; see the below table.

The $5000 is the PENALTY per car, in addition to the earned or purchased credits.

The hydrogen car can be seen here, for late 2014 or 2015:

http://www.ubergizmo.com/2013/06/2015-toyota-hydrogen-fuel-cell-car-to-sport-300-mile-range/

You can bet it will have a "300 mile range" through 2017!!! That's 7 credits per vehicle, and they only have to make 1427 minimum. After 2017, the credit drops to 3.


CARB-ZEV

For 2012-2014 "Phase 3", 12% of production must meet yearly ZEV requirements (including ZEV's, Enhanced AT PZEVs, ATPZEVs and PZEVs). Of that 12%, 0.79% must be ZEV.

Any type of ZEV may be used

Type V - 300+ miles range "fast refueling" - Credit per vehicle: 7 - Required # 1427
Type IV - 200+ miles range "fast refueling" - Credit per vehicle: 5 - Required # 2000
Type III - 100+ miles range "fast refueling" - Credit per vehicle: 4 - Required # 2500
Type III - 200+ miles range -------------- Credit per vehicle: 4 - Required # 2500
Type II - 100+ miles range --------------- Credit per vehicle: 3 - Required # 3333
Type I.5 - 75-100 miles range ----------- Credit per vehicle: 2.5 - Required # 4000
Type I - 50-75 miles range --------------- Credit per vehicle: 2 - Required # 5000

After 2017, the credits for Type III, IV and V drop to 3

All manufacturers must report by May of the calendar year following the compliance model year; e.g., for 2008 model year, report is due may 1, 2009. Manufacturers may update reports until September. Manufacturers have two years to make up a ZEV deficit, or they are subject to penalties outlines in Health and Safety Code 43211:

$5000 penalty per vehicle not produced

http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/macs/macs.htm

 

[reeler]

I bet the metal for the 2600 is already "bent" and sitting in a warehouse somewhere. They wouldn't want to retool for such a small production run. That should go into Tony's math.

 

[SparkieMarkie]

I am not sure why this discussion is now being brought up? Has there been anything in the press that suggests Toyota is discontinuing the Rav4EV? Since none of us are Toyota CPAs doing the cost accounting analysis on the actual numbers, who really knows?

Shutting down production is not like turning off a garden hose. There are $$ in parts in the pipeline that simply cannot be sent back. And there are, no doubt, a multitude of contacts with an array of vendors that simply don't end overnight.

As a regular reader of this forum, I am a bit disappointed in the 'analysis' that is being done here.

 

[miimura]

Agreed. Purchasing contracts always have cancellation conditions. It's never that simple to simply shut down the planned production. Just like Honda won't increase production of the Fit EV to match the demand created by their modified lease deal, Toyota likely won't change the RAV4 EV production. The current strategy of adjusting the incentives to move the required number will likely continue. I'll send Tony a $50 gift card of his choosing if RAV4 EV production stops before 2,000 cars are produced.

 

[waidy]

You guys can blame it on me. I started this without a press release. BUT.. I didn't make it up.

 

[TonyWilliams]

I'll send Tony a $50 gift card of his choosing if RAV4 EV production stops before 2,000 cars are produced.

My opinion is that there is NO WAY they would stop before 2600, for reasons completely beyond pure dollars and cents. But, as I've proposed, I wouldn't be surprised if they do stop it.

 

[TonyWilliams]

As a regular reader of this forum, I am a bit disappointed in the 'analysis' that is being done here.

Just to be clear, you have no objections to the data, just to the fact that we're talking about it?

 

[miimura]

As a regular reader of this forum, I am a bit disappointed in the 'analysis' that is being done here.

Just to be clear, you have no objections to the data, just to the fact that we're talking about it?

I interpreted his comment to mean that your 'analysis' was incomplete and did not consider other factors that may have a significant financial impact on Toyota's actual planning.

 

[TonyWilliams]

As a regular reader of this forum, I am a bit disappointed in the 'analysis' that is being done here.

Just to be clear, you have no objections to the data, just to the fact that we're talking about it?

I interpreted his comment to mean that your 'analysis' was incomplete and did not consider other factors that may have a significant financial impact on Toyota's actual planning.

I mentioned that very clearly in the post. If you or anybody has additional (insider) data, that would be great! Otherwise, it's previously stated and obvious.

By the way, I didn't guess on how much Toyota has spent in R&D, leaving it at "zero" for lack of more complete info. Anything Toyota did spend would only tilt in favor of buying credits and canceling the car.