Bleak Outlook for BEV in 2040

[mhkp]

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20131217/AUTO01/312170108

The Energy Department "predicts just 1 percent of total sales will be plug-in hybrids and 1 percent full electric vehicles in 2040."

Though if you read this article the other ED predictions seems to be whacky as well. Example: "The agency also predicts that when adjusted for inflation, the price of gasoline will rise to $3.90 by 2040, compared to a prior forecast of $4.40" I think we are one bad presidential election from $10 per gallon. Anyway how they make these dumb calculations for something 26 years out is beyond my understanding. 26 years ago, in 1988, the idea that we'd be chatting on an online forum about BEVs would have been science fiction.

Personally, and of course I'm biased, I think the future is 100% in electric vehicles and if we can harness micro nuclear that would be exciting as well.

 

[branstone]

Actually on the gas topic. With Mexico opening up and dissolving the monopoly, gas prices could remain the same or even lower over the next 20 -30 years. Predicted that North America now has more oil capacity than OPEC

But i do think that 1% seems rather low. But how many of all vehicles are actually passenger vehicles in the whole make up ? maybe not that high of a percentage....